Usually in 32 of the 36 non-restrictor plate races, practices mean everything. But the practices mean so little at Talladega that a few top drivers didn’t even turn a lap in the final session. If crew chiefs throw away scheduled time on the track, then that should be good enough for bettors to scrap it.
MORE: Driver-by-driver betting breakdown
The best bet is to look at what happened in the nine plate races since the beginning of the 2014 season, which is part of the reason why Dale Earnhardt Jr and Denny Hamlin are the top two rated drivers this week. Not much has changed with the plate package during that span; Hamlin has series best ninth-place average finish and two wins while Junior has three wins and he’s using a chassis that won two of those.
As steady as those two have been, it’s still a crap shoot. Good luck and enjoy the type of thrills only Talladega’s 2.66-mile track can produce.
NASCAR at Talladega driver ratings
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Daytona 500* 1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4/1 32nd 7th 3rd 36th Series leading 960 laps led and six wins, including last spring — using same chassis (Amelia). 2. Denny Hamlin 12/1 24th 15th 8th 1st 2014 spring winner; dominated Daytona speedweeks, winning both Sprint Unlimited and 500. 3. Jimmie Johnson 15/2 39th DNP 5th 16th Two-time winner, runner-up last spring; led 168 of 578 laps in past three Talladega starts. 4. Matt Kenseth 12/1 21st 18th 4th 14th 2012 fall winner is still looking for his first top-five of 2016 — this is ideal spot for him. 5. Kevin Harvick 10/1 6th DNP 29th 4th 2010 winner, 15.3 average finish; using chassis from past two Daytona races (fourth in each). 6. Carl Edwards 12/1 23rd DNP 9th 5th No wins in 46 career plate races, but has finished fifth in past two. Riding two-race win streak. 7. Martin Truex Jr. 15/1 22nd 22nd 12th 2nd Career-best fifth, twice, including 2015 (seventh in fall). Lost Daytona 500 by 0.01 seconds. 8. Joey Logano 12/1 8th 1st 22nd 6th Won first two plate races of career in 2015, including fall ‘Dega race. Junior won other two. 9. Kyle Busch 12/1 15th DNP 17th 3rd Won two plates races in 2008, but none since; 21.8 average finish in 21 Talladega starts. 10. Brad Keselowski 12/1 31st 11th 7th 20th Three-time winner using three different manufacturers. Yes, he likes this track very much. * Results from Feb. 21, 2016 Daytona 500, the only race run this season using a restrictor-plate package like is used at Talladega.
Odds courtesy of the William Hill sports books.
Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on twitter @MicahRoberts7
