I have never seen a driver lead the final practice session in his debut on a 1.5-mile track, but all indications from those in the know are that this 18-year old is a special talent and we’ll be seeing his name atop speeds charts over the next decade.
So what does that mean to his odds, which the Westgate SuperBook opened at 75-to-1? His price will drop as a precautionary measure for sure, maybe to 40-to-1. In addition to posting the fastest lap in qualifying trim, we also have to consider he had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average in the first practice among the 11 drivers that ran that many. He had the ninth fastest lap (186.806) during that session.
If those speeds were attached to just about any driver other than a kid making his debut, he would be given strong consideration to win this week.
Another factor to consider is that Jones earned his first win in the Xfinity Series race last month at Texas, the most recent 1.5-mile track run on this season, and the Xfinity Series cars are more similar to Cup cars in 2015 than ever before because of the new rules package.
The transition for Jones shouldn’t be as tough as it would have been in years past. It’s obvious he’s got talent, and the JGR power looks better than ever on 1.5s this season, a notion further validated by Carl Edwards’ strong speeds.
Look for a strong run out of Jones, as I’ve significantly upgraded him from where I initially thought he’d be – I felt he might just try to stay out of trouble and use all 400-miles as a learning curve before he gets his full-time ride. But he’s got some speed, and that should be respected.
The biggest reason for suggesting he won’t win Saturday night is the beastly No. 4 driven by Kevin Harvick. In the first practice session, he had the fastest lap (190.772) and during the final session, he had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average. He’s also using the same chassis that led 142 laps and dominated at Las Vegas, a track that is probably the most applicable to Kansas among the 1.5-mile tracks run at this year.
If Harvick has trouble, then Jones will have to slay Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr and Jimmie Johnson, who all practiced well Friday and all have been dominant on 1.5s this season as well. Logano has led 150 laps between the three 1.5s, Junior has finished fourth or better on them, and Johnson has won twice among the three. Johnson is also using his winning Texas chassis from last month.
That’s a stiff road to climb for Jones even if his car is the best on the track. However, Jones’ Friday performance just made Saturday night’s race all the more interesting to watch. He will be the story of the race, or at least at the beginning.
Micah Roberts’ Top-10 driver ratings, 2015 SpongeBob SquarePants 400 Kansas Speedway, Saturday, May 9, 2015 - 7:44 p.m. ET
*Results from April 11 race at Texas Motor Speedway, the last 1.5-mile track raced on. Texas is banked much steeper than Kansas, but set-up requirements are similar and drivers who do well on one, usually do well on the other…All statistical information provided is specific for Kansas unless otherwise noted….Odds courtesy Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director in Las Vegas, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1995. Follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.
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