Saturday’s race will be the third this season on a 1.5-mile track (after Atlanta and Las Vegas) and fourth on a down-force track (Fontana was the other), and Harvick led 292 laps between those three races, capturing a win and two second-place finishes. His excellence on these tracks gives all the creditability he needs to be considered the favorite, even though several drivers showed more speed in practice this week.

One of those drivers was 2006 Texas winner Kasey Kahne, who had the second fastest lap (190.463 mph) during the first sessions and the fastest lap (190.975) in the final session. Kahne also had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average during the first session, which means he’s going to be very good on longer runs, and there are a lot of those over 500 miles.

Unlike most practices where the most relevant times are in the final session, the first session at Texas might be the most important, since it is mostly run in race trim. The final session was split , with teams starting in race trim before switching to a mock qualifying set-up. Brad Keselowski was fastest in the second session using race trim, but Kahne was fastest with qualifying trim on his ninth and final lap run.

Another note to consider is that the race starts under much different conditions – under the lights – than the daytime practices.

Kahne has yet to crack the top-10 in any of the down-force tracks this season, but over his career, most of his success has come on 1.5-mile tracks. Looking the sharpest during practice gives Kahne a serious upgrade in his ratings this week, but he’s still only the third best candidate to win.

Right after Harvick, it’s four -time Texas winner Jimmie Johnson, who looks just as good as Kahne. What gives Johnson the nod over Kahne is that he’s not only won three of the past five Texas races, he’s also won on a 1.5-mile track (Atlanta) this season. Johnson had the second fastest 10-consecutive lap average after Kahne in the early session. Jamie McMurray, Austin Dillon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. were next best in the category.

McMurray is the real interesting look here because he looks so fast, but we have seen this before and it hasn’t necessarily translated to race day. You probably won’t get 60-to-1 odds anymore with McMurray, but he’s not a bad long shot. And with Harvick’s bar appearing to have been lowered, McMurray is worth an investment.

David Ragan fits that criteria as well. He had the best 10-consecutive lap average in the final practice session. He also had the fifth-fastest lap in the early session. The Joe Gibbs Racing cars are improving every time out on these tracks. Expect Ragan to run as well as teammate Denny Hamlin, who swept the 2010 Texas season.

Micah Roberts’ Top-10 Driver Ratings, Duck Commander 500

  • Results from the Las Vegas March 1 race, the last race held on a 1.5-mile track, similar to Texas. Atlanta results can also be used to narrow down best candidates to win.

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994 and covers all sports with a gaming spin. Follow him on Twitter @MicahRoberts7.