MORE: Driver-by-driver odds breakdown

Harvick had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average during the final practice session on Friday, while also laying down the third-fastest lap in the early session. Already rated as the driver to beat prior to practices, Harvick was upgraded when the team revealed he was going to use the same chassis that led 224 of the 312 laps at Phoenix.

Neither of the practice sessions are comparable to the conditions the drivers will see at night, so it is quite possible for someone who didn’t fare well Friday have the conditions come to them, or vice-versa, where a driver who was set-up perfectly Friday have the conditions move away from them.

This race might not even get in Saturday night because rain is expected right about the time the race is supposed to start. Hopefully, NASCAR doesn’t try to force a start again like last week at Bristol when drops were falling and Brad Keselowski slipped and took out teammate Joey Logano to ruin both their days.  

While both Penske drivers figure to be chasing Harvick for the win, Harvick will be chasing Logano, the pole-sitter, early. Logano won this race last season, and Keselowski completed the Penske sweep in the fall.

The next tier of contending drivers all come from the Hendrick and Gibbs garages. Both Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne qualified poorly and will start from near the back of the pack, but each will be just fine during the race with a chance to mix it up with the leaders.  

Carl Edwards continues his weekly upswing and had the third-fastest lap during final practice. He won at Richmond in the fall of 2013 and could be looking at his first top-five finish of the season. Gibbs teammate Denny Hamlin has two wins at Richmond, but none since 2010. Home cooking did the native Virginian good at Martinsville in March and it might do the same Saturday. He had the fifth fastest lap during final practice.

Micah Roberts’ top-10 driver ratings, 2015 Toyota Owners 400, Richmond International Raceway 

  • Results from the March 15 race at Phoenix International Raceway. Because of similar set-up requirements for Phoenix and Richmond, drivers that do well on one usually fare the same on the other – New Hampshire falls into that group as well. All statistical information provided is specific for Richmond unless otherwise noted; odds courtest of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director in Las Vegas, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1995. Follow @MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.