Ten years ago, the people of Yugoslavia were in the forefront of all communist states. Today, they’re at the bottom of the pile with no salvation in sight. The West initially thought that Milosevic was a digestible former communist. He’s not digestible at all. He’s a rogue interested only in power and his own durability. He had a historic chance to make a change for democratic reform and human rights at the end of the communist era. This never entered his plans. Milosevic–like other dictators who arose from the ashes of Yugoslavia by playing on nationalist fervor and economic frustration–is part of the problem, not a stepping stone to solutions. Any deal concluded with him, absent a system of security for the entire region, is bound to fail. The Dayton accords helped end the fighting in the bloody arena of Bosnia, and we should all be grateful for that. But they also enhanced Milosevic’s credibility as a power broker for Bosnian Serbs. So he’s moved on to the bloody arena of Kosovo. And we have lost much time.
While the bombing goes on, innocent people die and the pain of survivors increases immeasurably. But what will happen when the bombing stops? The attack by NATO is the biggest gift anyone could have given to Milosevic and his mafia. For many others, I see the continuation of misery and pain–more refugees, more of the country’s lifeblood spilled. We’ve already lost close to 250,000 intellectuals from the old Yugoslavia who could have been the backbone of a new democracy–doctors, technicians, lawyers. Now, many more will flee.
Ultimately, Milosevic may yield on Kosovo. He wants power more than he wants that headache. If he yields, he will excoriate the West for the disaster of losing what is so dear to the Serbs. And then he will move on to his next scenario–Sandjak or Vojvodina–using nationalism to enforce his rule. Milosevic will remain the supreme commander in Belgrade, along with his very loyal wife. They will still have at their disposal the Ministry of the Interior–a country-within-a-country that operates militias and secret police, that controls the media and shuts down the political opposition.
I know something about totalitarianism and being a refugee. I was born in exile in 1945 at Claridge’s Hotel in London. The British declared it Yugoslav territory for the day so that my accession to the throne could occur legally if the monarchy were ever restored. From my visits to Belgrade in the 1990s and from the reports of those who visit me in London, I believe a substantial percentage of my people would support restoration of a constitutional monarchy in which I might reign but democracy would rule. I’ve been standing up for years for constitutional rights for all people–Serbs, Albanians and all minorities. If the Albanian Kosovars had such rights, they might never have felt the need to separate from Yugoslavia at all. But I have little access to Yugoslavian media and neither does any other true friend of democracy. Extremists have prevailed instead. Both sides in this civil war over Kosovo have used terrorism for their own ends. And the innocent people–Albanians and Serbs–have been caught in between.
At the start of this century, the great powers regarded the Balkans as partly a geographic region and partly a disease for which quarantine was the only cure. My homeland may enter the new millennium in an even sorrier condition. In the past few days, This long-running Balkan tragedy has taken a terribly ill-considered turn. It’s very important in the next few days that the leaders of the alliance work out an endgame that topples the dictator-king of the 1990s instead of reinforcing him.
I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but here are some we should try. We should go after Milosevic’s personal assets and those of his mafia, money belonging to the people that was whisked away from Belgrade a decade ago and is now in various offshore localities–Cyprus, Switzerland and beyond. We should create a 21st-century equivalent of Radio Free Europe, using the best of modern technology and the talents of our journalists who have fled. Yugoslavians who want democratic change must be identified and supported. The people must be convinced that if they shake off Milosevic’s rule, they will be reintegrated into the family of European nations. Such democratization may be both arduous and expensive. The West’s current approach is both those things and a third one: hopelessly counterproductive.
