Navalny later said prison guards placed a “bioweapon” in his cell in the form of a flu-stricken prisoner, and his lawyer later reported Navalny had fallen ill with flu symptoms. While there is no indication at this time that Navalny’s current illness is life-threatening, an eventual “natural” death for Navalny may just be Putin’s ultimate goal for the Kremlin critic, according to one professor.
Numerous other opponents of Putin have died violently or under mysterious circumstances in the more than 20 years that he’s been leader of Russia. However, Navalny has been in jail under various charges since February 2021 and is expected to remain locked up for approximately the next 12 years.
“If Putin had wanted Navalny dead, he could have easily arranged for this,” George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government professor Mark N. Katz told Newsweek.
He added that “Putin may think he’ll be better off if Navalny dies from illness than directly at the hand of the state.”
The reason Navalny remains alive could be simply that he’s now “too famous to kill,” Lawrence C. Reardon, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, told Newsweek.
“Navalny has been a useful tool to scare Putin’s political opponents, whether they be lawyers, politicians or oligarchs,” Reardon said. “There is a term in Chinese that is appropriate: Shaji, xiahou. This translates as ‘Kill the chicken to scare away the monkeys.’ However, the problem is that Putin failed to kill Navalny, who survived the Novichok nerve agent attack. [Navalny was hospitalized after he was poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020. The Kremlin denied involvement.] Navalny thus became a global advocate for justice, awarded the Sakharov Prize, and established an extensive anti-Putin political movement inside and outside of Russia utilizing the media and social media tools.”
Katz said the placement of a flu-riddled prisoner may not have been done as an indirect way to kill Navalny.
“By putting a sick person in Navalny’s cell who probably led to Navalny becoming seriously ill, Putin may not necessarily be seeking Navalny’s death, but giving Navalny a choice: medical treatment in return for a halt to his continuing to issue negative statements which fire up his supporters and generate a lot of negative publicity internationally,” Katz said. “A live Navalny who is quiet would be better for Putin than a dead Navalny whose death becomes an inspiration to others. Navalny, though, is extremely stubborn and may not help Putin out here.”
William Reno, a professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, told Newsweek that he believes a living Navalny provides Putin with a very valuable scapegoat as the war in Ukraine drags on.
“Putin, of course, is beyond responsibility. Navalny and others are useful as ‘part of the problem,’ sharing in the blame heaped on anyone associated with the market economy whose policies weakened Russia’s military-industrial base,” Reno said. “If the solution to Russia’s prolonged crisis is to militarize the economy, it is useful to have people like Navalny who can be blamed to explain to the people why the ‘special military operation’ didn’t turn out as advertised.”
Reno added, “That’s not to say Navalny is safe in the long-term…I suspect all mention of Navalny, his prison conditions, and the Kremlin’s intent to kill him or keep him alive is connected to a communications strategy more than to Putin’s personal feelings about the man.”
Even if keeping Navalny alive for now is more beneficial for Putin, Russian officials may also see the advantage of keeping prison conditions harsh for the opposition leader.
As Reardon said, Navalny “will only pass if he dies of the flu or COVID, so that Putin would not be completely blamed.”
Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin and a representative for Navalny for comment.
