Miami Heat at Memphis Grizzlies
Coming off back-to-back losses against the Rockets and Spurs, the Memphis Grizzlies will look to get back on track at home against a Heat team struggling to find any sort of rhythm. Expect the Grizzlies to show no mercy as they head into Sunday’s matchup after ending a 22-game home winning streak just a couple nights earlier.
AccuScore has the Grizzlies as solid 79.7 percent favorites to win, a number that warrants a -392 price. Therefore, the Vegas price of -380 stands out as a value. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 98-89. There is about a 55 percent chance the total combined score stays UNDER 190.5. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami’s last 21 games when playing the Grizzlies.
There is a 53.1 percent chance the Grizzlies cover a -8 spread, a 2-star (out of 4) AccuScore hot trend. Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing Miami.
The biggest difference between the two team’s box scores is the rebounding. In simulations Memphis averages 7-8 more rebounds than does Miami, including about three more offensive rebounds. Given the emphasis the Grizzlies put on defense, yielding them a rebounding advantage in the Grindhouse isn’t a recipe for success.
Keep an Eye Out: Expect this matchup to be played at a slower pace than most other NBA games. Memphis is notoriously known for a slower tempo, especially at home. Miami is No. 1 in the league in opponent field goals attempted per game this year, with Memphis at No. 9.
Projected Leaders Dwyane Wade: 18 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block, 4 TOs Marc Gasol: 17 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 2 TOs
Supporting Trends: The total has gone UNDER in five of the Grizzlies’ last six games when playing at home against the Heat.
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