The second and third, however, is where the chalk takes hold. Since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 19 of the 31 national champions were No. 1 seeds. Upsets happen, but the tournament tends to lean on chalk. The proof is in the percentages.
MORE: One of these 16 teams will probably win Here’s a look at the champions, championship game participants and Final Four teams by seed since 1985. Here are the odds to play when building your bracket.
Winning the championship
No. 1: 61.3 percentNo. 2: 12.9No. 3: 12.9No. 4: 3.2No. 6: 3.2No. 7: 3.2No. 8: 3.2
Analysis: Since the tournament expanded, 23 of the 31 national champions — or 74.1 percent — were either No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. That includes three of the last four national champions in Kentucky (2012), Louisville (2013) and Duke (2015).
Making championship game
No. 1: 48.3 percentNo. 2: 17.8No. 3: 14.5No. 4: 4.8No. 5: 4.8No. 6: 3.2No. 7: 1.6No. 8: 4.8
Analysis: Duke and Wisconsin played in a No. 1 vs. No. 1 championship game last season, but that’s not the norm. It’s happened just five times in the seeding era. Still, No. 1 seeds have made up 30 of the 62 national championship participants since 1985.
MORE: See Sporting News’ All-American teams
Making Final Four
No. 1: 41.1 percentNo. 2: 20.2No. 3: 12.1No. 4: 10.5No. 5: 4.8No. 6: 2.4No. 7: 1.6No. 8: 4.0No. 9: 0.8No. 11: 2.4
Analysis: Since 1985, 26.6 percent of the Final Four participants have been seeded No. 4 or lower, and Michigan State continued that trend as a No. 7 seed last year. It’s OK to pick a team that is seeded No. 4 or lower to reach the Final Four.
Three-point play
— Even in a wide-open year, it’s still best to pick a No. 1 seed to win your bracket, knowing that 41.1 percent of the Final Four teams are No. 1 seeds and 61.3 percent of national champions have come from the top line.
— A No. 2 seed hasn’t won the NCAA Tournament since UConn in 2004. Considering only four national champions in the expanded bracket era have been No. 2 seeds, this is a risky strategy.
