About half of those polled who live outside of California say the actor’s victory over Gov. Gray Davis on Oct. 7 “doesn’t much matter” to them, but nearly four out of 10 said they would sign a petition to recall their own governor if their state had a recall system like California’s.
Still, it seems few would opt to elect another candidate with a big name but little political experience like Schwarzenegger. Fifty-six percent of Americans say it would be a bad thing if more celebrities without any political experiences got involved in politics at the national level, while one-quarter of respondents say it would be a good thing. Thirteen percent have mixed feelings and six percent don’t know. Sixty-four percent of Americans would oppose a constitutional amendment to allow a U.S. citizen born in another country, like Schwarzenegger, to be elected president (29 percent would favor such an amendment). And 58 percent of those polled see the election of an actor in California is an isolated case; only 27 percent see it as a signal of a new wave of anti-establishment politics in the country (15 percent don’t know).
There are signs, however, that Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with the current political establishment. Seventy percent of those polled say the country’s political system is so controlled by special interests and partisanship that it cannot respond to the country’s real needs; 25 percent disagree. And more than half of respondents (54 percent) say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States now, while 40 percent say they are satisfied–almost a complete reversal from six months ago when half of Americans said they were satisfied and 41 percent were not.
This dissatisfaction is reflected in President George W. Bush’s approval rating as well, which now stands at 51 percent–statistically equal to his approval rating in the four previous polls taken since August, but the lowest level since before the September 11 attacks in 2001. Forty-two percent of Americans now say they disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, and almost as many strongly disapprove of his job performance as strong approve of it (29 percent compared to 31 percent). Half of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected, while 44 percent would re-elect him to another term.
Despite his wavering support, Bush still leads all the potential Democratic candidates, in part because no clear leader has emerged from the pack of Democratic contenders. Even with the withdrawal of Florida Sen. Bob Graham from the field and a second democratic debate this week, the race among Democratic candidates remains extremely competitive. In the past month, Sen. Joe Lieberman has picked up slightly more support and former Vermont governor Howard Dean has dropped into fourth place among the nine candidates. Gen. Wesley Clark still leads the way among registered Democrats and self-described Democratic leaners, with 15 percent saying they would most like to see him nominated as the party’s presidential candidate in 2004. Thirteen percent would opt for Sen. Joe Lieberman, 11 percent for Sen. John Kerry, 10 percent for Dean, and eight percent for Rep. Dick Gephardt. The rest received support from six percent of less of those polled.
Bush leads the top five candidates by margins of four to nine points. But his lead is slipping, and the president may have to boost public support for his handling of the economy, the situation in Iraq and other issues if he is to secure his lead on the Democratic challengers.
Forty-four percent of registered voters say the economy and jobs will be more important in determining their vote in the presidential election next year, though more than half say terrorism and homeland security are equally important issues (37 percent) or more important (16 percent). More Americans now disapprove than approve of the way Bush is handling the economy (56 percent vs. 38 percent); the situation in Iraq (49 percent vs. 44 percent); taxes (47 percent vs. 43 percent); and, by the widest margin yet, healthcare (51 percent vs. 34 percent). Bush still enjoys a relatively strong 66 percent approval rating in his policies to prevent and minimize terrorism at home (26 percent disapprove). But Americans are split almost evenly on their views of his handling of foreign policy in general; 45 percent approve while 44 percent do not.
Americans seem increasingly concerned with the U.S. involvement in Iraq. A plurality of those polled (37 percent) say the U.S. military action against Iraq will do more to increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed or injured in future terror attacks, while 25 percent say the risk will decrease and 30 percent say it won’t make much difference. Slightly more than half of Americans are somewhat (35 percent) or very confident (17 percent) that the United States will establish a stable democratic form of government in Iraq over the long term, while 24 percent are not too confident and 19 percent are not at all confident.
While more than half of respondents (56 percent) still think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq in March, that is a 12 percent drop from the number who felt that way in a poll taken in late July. And 37 percent now feel the United States did not do the right thing by invading Iraq.
Nearly half of Americans (49 percent) think that the Bush administration misinterpreted or misanalyzed the intelligence reports they said indicated Iraq had banned weapons before the Iraq war; 39 percent do not. But for the first time since the question was asked in late May, Americans are evenly divided–at 45 percent each–on whether the administration purposely misled the public about evidence that Iraq had banned weapons in order to build support for the war (10 percent don’t know). In the past, respondents have leaned toward believing the administration did not purposely mislead the public.
For the NEWSWEEK Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed by telephone 1,004 adults aged 18 and older on Oct. 9 and Oct. 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
