Still, when pitted in a hypothetical two-way race with Sen. John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, Bush holds his own. Forty-five percent of Americans say they would vote for Bush; 46 percent say they would support Kerry and 9 percent remain undecided.
But there’s little doubt that Bush is losing ground among the public for his policies in Iraq. With images of naked and shackled prisoners still fresh in their minds, the 35 percent of the public that approve of the handling the war in Iraq represents a nine-point drop over last month. And the number of those who think the United States did the right thing in declaring war on Iraq in the first place has fallen 11-points from December, to 51 percent.
Still, the public remains unwilling to abandon the mission in Iraq. Fifty-seven percent say the United States can still achieve its goals in Iraq, though for the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, a majority, 54 percent, say they are either “not too” or “not at all” confident that the U.S. will be able establish a stable government in Iraq.
“You are doing a superb job,” Bush said in his first public comments to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as the Abu Ghraib scandal was unfolding. “You are a strong secretary of defense, and our nation owes you a debt of gratitude.” Others agree: a majority (57 percent) do not feel that Rumsfeld should be removed from his job (30 percent feel he should go). Americans are split over whether the abuse of Iraqi prisoners was a case of low-ranking soldiers acting on their own (36 percent) or authorized by higher-ups (45 percent). Nineteen percent say they don’t know.
And with emotions still raw over the beheading of Nick Berg, a young American civilian in Iraq, Americans are split over whether his murder vindicates the war or repudiates it: Forty-three percent of those polled felt his killing was a reminder of the brutality of the enemy and proof that fighting is the right tack. But 38 percent feel the assassination was evidence that Americans are becoming targets abroad as a direct result of Bush’s policies.
But Kerry has been unable to leverage increasing discomfort over Bush’s Iraq policies into a real lead over the president. Although Kerry enjoyed a statistical advantage-a seven-point spread-over Bush last month, the NEWSWEEK poll shows a dead heat in a two-way race between Bush and Kerry. Adding independent candidate Ralph Nader to the race does little to change the dynamics: Forty-two percent would vote for Bush, 43 percent for Kerry and 5 percent Nader. While overall support for Bush remains steady, just 24 percent of registered voters say they support him “strongly,” a four-point drop over last month. The percentage of voters who support Kerry “strongly” remains steady at 22 percent.
Kerry does hold a strong statistical lead over Bush among women. In a three-way trial heat, 38 percent of women would cast their vote for Bush; 45 percent say they would support Kerry.
Both the president and his presumptive challenger enjoy similar favorability ratings-nearly half of all voters view both men favorably (47 percent for Kerry and 46 percent), but more have an “unfavorable” view of Bush (46 percent) than do of the senator from Massachusetts (36 percent). That may be because fewer people feel like they know Kerry-14 percent of those polled offered no opinion of the senator, nearly twice the number for Bush (8 percent). Looking forward, Kerry may have difficulty using the public’s war malaise to his political advantage. A majority (54 percent) of Americans feel it would be inappropriate for him to criticize the president while U.S. troops were fighting abroad.
