Newsweek Poll Bush Loses Ground

On Thursday, White House lawyers filed a brief with the Supreme Court arguing that the University of Michigan’s affirmative action policies are unconstitutional and unfair. More than two-thirds of Americans polled said they don’t think colleges and universities should give preference in admissions based on race or ethnicity. They also felt strongly that preferential treatment should be denied to children of alumni, athletes and even musicians and other artists. However, 65 percent would approve of affirmative action based on income, giving preference for college admissions to applicants from low-income families, regardless of their race or ethnic background.

Blacks, along with musicians and other artists, received the most support for preferential treatment in college admissions, with 26 percent of those polled saying the two groups should get preference, 69 percent saying musicians should not and 68 percent saying blacks should not (the remainder did not know). Support was about the same for other minorities-25 and 23 percent say preference should be given to Hispanic and Asian applicants respectively (70 and 71 percent say it should not). Legacies received the least support, with nearly three-quarters of respondents (74 percent) saying children of alumni should not get preferential treatment in college admissions, and just 19 percent saying they should. Athletes received slightly more support, with 22 percent saying they should get preference in admissions and 73 percent saying they should not.

Forty-four percent of respondents–and 54 percent of minorities polled–say they view affirmative action as an attempt to increase outreach efforts to find qualified black and Hispanic college applicants, while 38 percent (or 26 percent of minorities only) see it as setting quotas or reserving a fixed number of positions for the two minority groups in college admissions (18 percent don’t know). More than half of those polled (53 percent) say affirmative action for blacks and Hispanics does not have much effect at all on the overall quality of higher education, while 22 percent say it improves the quality, and 14 percent say it decreased the quality. Among minorities polled, one-third say the quality of education is improved, ten percent say it is decreased, and 44 percent say the quality is not affected much.

Bush, meanwhile, is losing support in his handling of other issues both at home and abroad. Despite the unveiling last week of a $674 billion economic stimulus package proposal, 46 percent now say they disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy; 45 percent say they approve. Support for Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism abroad has also dropped sharply over the past few months, from a 70-percent approval rating in late September to 55 percent this week. Thirty-eight percent of those polled say they do not approve of the way the president is handling the terror war overseas.

A slim majority of Americans say they approve of the administration’s efforts to deal with Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, while 38 percent say they disapprove–about the same split as in past polls over the last few months. And 63 percent say they would support military action, while 31 percent would not.

Four out of five polled agree that Americans would be safer and more secure if Saddam were no longer in power in Iraq. However, most prefer to try non-military solutions first in order to achieve that goal. Sixty percent say it is more important to take more time to achieve U.S. goals in Iraq without using military force, 35 percent prefer to move quickly with military force and see it as the only way to deal effectively with Iraq (five percent don’t know).

Support for war in Iraq declines dramatically when specific scenarios are raised. Eighty-one percent of Americans support U.S. military action against Iraq if the U.S. joins together with its major allies and has the full backing of the U.N. Security Council. But support drops to just 39 percent if the United States was joined by one or two major allies in the attack, but did not have the support of the United Nations. That differs from even a week ago, when more Americans supported such action than didn’t (47 to 45 percent, according to a PSRA survey for Knight-Ridder newspapers).

Half of those polled say they would be upset upon first hearing that military action had been taken against Iraq (47 percent would not be), and just 19 percent say they would be “excited” (78 percent say they would not be excited by the news).

Forty-six percent of respondents say a reinstatement of the draft requiring young men to serve in the military, something that has not been used since the 1970s, should not be considered. However, 37 percent say it should and 13 percent say they would favor a military draft reinstatement. Not surprisingly, the percentage of those opposed to a reinstatement of the draft was highest among those between the ages of 18 and 29 years old–the group most likely to be affected by such a move. Fifty-five percent in that age group said a reinstatement should not be considered, 30 percent said it should and 11 percent would favor the reinstatement.

Asked if young women as well as men should be required to serve if the draft were reinstated, 49 percent of all those polled said yes. Forty-six percent said no (five percent weren’t sure). Among women, the percentages were reversed, with fewer supporting the inclusion of their gender in the draft. For this NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,002 adults aged 18 and older on Jan. 16 and 17. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.