Bush’s approval rating remains below the 50 percent mark, with just 48 percent approving of the president’s overall job performance (45 percent disapprove). In December, shortly after the capture of deposed Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, his approval rating was at 54 percent. These results come at the end of a controversial several weeks for the president, with attention focused on revelations by the chief adviser to the administration on Iraqi weapons, David Kay, that “we were almost all wrong” about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. In a tacit acknowledgement that Kay’s claim has merit, Bush created a bipartisan commission Friday to investigate the quality of the intelligence that led the nation to war and agreed to defend his record on the Sunday morning talk show “Meet the Press.”
Voter sentiment reflects this decline in Bush’s approval ratings, with 50 percent leaning against his reelection in November (compared to 45 percent in favor). A full 45 percent of voters feel strongly that Bush should not be reelected (up four points from the new year), compared with 37 percent who feel strongly that he should be reelected (down three points). The polls still reveal a nation split along party lines, though, with 88 percent of registered Republicans favoring his reelection and 84 percent of registered Democrats strongly opposing a second term.
And as Bush continues to slip, John Kerry climbs. Perhaps in part because of increased media attention paid to the Democratic candidates in the primary race, the senator continues to out-poll the president in a hypothetical race. If the election were held today, Kerry would take 50 percent of the vote to Bush’s 45 percent. Bush still leads in a race with Edwards by five points (49 percent to 44 percent), but that gap has been steadily closing since the end of last year when Bush’s lead was twice that (51 percent to 40 percent). Bush leads former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (who has been slipping in the polls since the Iowa caucus) with 50 percent of the vote to the Vermonter’s 44 percent. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark trails Bush by eight points (51 percent to 43 percent).
With Kerry for now having apparently tapped the mantle of most “electable” Democrat in the primary race, the senator is the first choice of 48 percent of registered Democrats, up three points over last week. Dean, the erstwhile frontrunner, is a distant second with 13 percent of them choosing him first, then comes Edwards with 10 percent, followed by Clark with 9 percent.
In what could become a defining issue in the presidential election, a Massachusetts court ruling was reaffirmed this week that gay marriage is a constitutional right. But, according to the poll, 58 percent of Americans believe that gay marriages should not be allowed and only a third (33 percent) support giving gays and lesbians the right to marry. Just 40 percent of those polled support “legally-sanctioned gay and lesbian unions or partnerships” (versus 50 percent who oppose). In his State of the Union address, president Bush pushed for a Constitutional ban on homosexual marriage, a move on which voters are split: 47 percent support the ban and 45 oppose. For his part, Kerry has claimed, “I oppose gay marriage and disagree with the Massachusetts court’s decision,” though he does support civil unions. In a race between Bush and Kerry, their opposing stances on the issue could end up affecting the election’s outcome: Just over half (54 percent) of all voters say it will at least be somewhat important in determining who gets their vote.
