But the poll is not all bad news for the GOP. President Bush declared this week that the administration was putting the Baghdad government on notice that it had to make progress in stemming sectarian violence and rebuilding the country. Otherwise, Washington would consider changes to its Iraq policy. And it worked—at the margins. Almost half of all Americans still believe taking military action in Iraq was a mistake, but the gap between those who say it was not and those who say it was the right decision has narrowed: from 54 to 39 last week to 49 to 43 this week—from a 15-point margin to just six points.
Faith that the United States is making progress in Iraq is up slightly, too: from 25 percent of Americans last week to 29 percent this week. A solid majority still believes the United States is losing ground, but its ranks have decreased from 65 percent to 60 percent. The biggest change is among Republicans. Last week, 50 percent of Republicans said America was making progress in Iraq (35 percent said we were losing ground). This week 65 percent of Republicans say we’re making progress and only 22 percent say we’re losing ground.
That’s good news for the GOP, relatively speaking. But relative is about the only kind of good news the GOP gets these days. (Sixty-one percent of all Americans still say Washington should set a timetable for a withdrawal of U.S. forces, including 39 percent of Republicans.)
When all Americans were asked which they would rather see happen: the GOP retain control of Congress or the Democrats win enough seats to take over one or both houses, 50 percent of adults said they want a Democratic takeover while 35 percent said they wanted the Republicans to hold tight the reigns of power; in last week’s poll, 55 percent wanted the Democrats to take over and 32 wanted the Republicans to retain power.
And while 61 percent of Americans are still dissatisfied with the direction of the country, that compares to 67 percent who were dissatisfied in two NEWSWEEK polls earlier this month. The ranks of the “satisfied” have grown, if not swelled, from 25 percent to 31 percent.
On the issues, Republicans have staunched their own political bloodletting, pulling even with Democrats on signature GOP issues: for instance, 40 percent of Americans trust Republicans more on handling terrorism; 39 percent trust Democrats more—a statistical tie. And when it comes to which party voters trust more on moral values, Americans are evenly split at 38 percent. The GOP has narrowed the trust gap on other issues, but the Democrats still lead—on Iraq (45 to 33); the economy (47 to 34); health care (53 to 26); immigration (40 to 32); federal spending and the deficit (47 to 31); and stem-cell research (48 to 26). They even tie, statistically, on what used to be bedrock Republican issues: 39 to 37, in favor of the Democrats, on guns; and 38 to 36 in favor of the Democrats on crime. On abortion, Democrats win 42 to 33 and on same-sex marriage, 41 to 33.
Most worrisome for the GOP? As a wave of negative political ads from both parties takes to the airwaves in the final days before the election, voters so far judge the Republican ads more harshly. Overall, about two-thirds of registered voters say neither parties’ ads have made much difference in how they’re going to vote. Just 9 percent of registered voters who have seen Republican advertisements say the spots make them more likely to vote for Republican candidates; 24 percent say the ads make them less likely. The Democrats seem to turn off fewer voters with their commercials and win more over, but it’s still a wash. Fourteen percent of registered voters say they’re more likely to vote for a Democrat because of the ads they’ve seen; 16 percent say they’re less likely.
And the GOP seems to be risking a backlash with some of its most risqué advertisements. The most widely viewed of the commercials in the NEWSWEEK poll— the Michael J. Fox ad in support of stem-cell research, which aired in Missouri and Maryland (and is the only ad in the poll seen by a majority of Americans)—was considered acceptable by 62 percent of registered voters who saw it. But of the 24 percent of registered voters who said they’d seen the ad “critical of a Tennessee Senate candidate that shows a young woman who says she met him at a party,” only 20 percent found it acceptable; an overwhelming 77 percent of those who had seen it said the ad was “too extreme.”
Which begs a question: Just how scary will things get between now and Nov. 7?
The NEWSWEEK poll, conducted Oct. 26-27, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In conducting the poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,002 adults aged 18 and older.
