That kind of hubris has now landed Gingrich in deep trouble. Shortly before Christmas, a House ethics subcommittee stopped just short of calling him a liar and a tax cheat. After a two-year investigation, the panel of two Republicans and two Democrats concluded that Gingrich used tax-exempt charitable contributions to fund a televised college course that was actually a political recruiting vehicle. It also found that–despite past assertions to the contrary–he used GOPAC, his political-action committee, to market the course. Hoping to put the matter behind him, Gingrich acknowledged the transgressions for the first time.

The timing for Gingrich could not have been worse. The full ethics committee meets this week to discuss his punishment, which probably won’t be more than a low-level reprimand. But first the House is scheduled to vote on his re-election as speaker. Gingrich and his lieutenants spent the beginning of the new year twisting arms and delivering not-so-veiled threats to Republicans unhappy about having to commit to their leader before learning the full extent of the case against him. Gingrichite leaders treated the upcoming vote as an ultimate test of party loyalty, even pushing the two GOP members of the ethics subcommittee–who are supposed to refrain from public comment about their deliberations–to signal that there would be no surprises after the election. _B_Ethics charges: _b_For the moment, Gingrich’s speakership appeared to be safe. But he may face a raucous partisan fight to hang on to his job after the vote. At public hearings later this month the committee’s special counsel, former federal prosecutor James Cole, will present a more detailed account of his findings. House Democrats are eager to avenge Gingrich’s relentless pursuit of former speaker Jim Wright (who resigned in 1989 while facing ethics charges) and deflect attention from the White House campaign-fund-raising scandal. If Cole delivers new revelations, it could force Republicans to sanction Gingrich more severely. A censure (the next most stringent penalty) would force him to resign as speaker.

At the core of the case is a course Gingrich taught at two Georgia colleges from 1993 to 1995. Renewing American Civilization was Gingrich’s conservative gospel in praise of smaller government, free enterprise and technology. It was beamed to cable systems around the country, with production costs paid for by donors to tax-exempt charitable foundations legally barred from funding political activity.

The ethics report never specifically states that Gingrich broke federal tax law. And he argues that his only error was failing to seek proper legal counsel to help him through the complicated regulations. But late last month The Atlanta Constitution reported that Gingrich’s lawyers warned him about mixing politics and charity.

More ominous for Gingrich is evidence that he lied to the ethics panel. In October 1994 he told the committee that GOPAC was involved in the preparation of the college course. When the panel asked more questions, Gingrich reversed himself and stated that GOPAC had no role. But the subcommittee’s report proves that Gingrich’s political organization helped devel- op the class as a recruiting vehicle. In a GOPAC letter, Gingrich promised a course “that captures first [Americans’] imagination and then their votes.”

Gingrich’s chances for survival as speaker are buoyed by the lack of a credible Republican alternative. And unlike Wright, who was widely disliked by Democrats for his heavy-handed style, Gingrich still commands considerable GOP loyalty. But last week’s mini-revolt suggests that even the good will may be eroding. Another round of disclosures and it could crumble altogether.